Monday, April 25, 2016

Voters Turnout and Poverty Incidence

In the heat of the national elections this May 9, most of my friends, particularly on social media, have been actively endorsing their preferred candidates and to the extent of mudslinging that could have resulted to unfollow or unfriend each other. 

With the recent commitment of the government to provide open data for analysis and since most of my friends are in the NCR, I wonder how we stand in terms of actually making our stand by going  to your precinct on election day. Apparently, during national elections, it shows a cyclic pattern that peopleare more active in participating compared to the local and senatorial elections which happen in between the two national elections. It is noted that the lowest turnout is the National Capital Region. Why?


I have this hypothesis that the poverty incidence, which is the proportion of the families over the population. Since this data is not periodically collected, an aggregated measure was done. It follows a logarithmic curvilinear trend which is statistically significant at 90%. Also, the regions have been categorized into four quadrants:

  • Quadrant 1: High Poverty Incidence and High Voters Turnout
  • Quadrant 2: Low Poverty Incidence and High Voters Turnout
  • Quadrant 3: Low Poverty Incidence and Low Voters Turnout
  • Quadrant 4: High Poverty Incidence and Low Voters Turnout


There are other factors that may affect the voters turnout - the poverty magnitude (number of poor families), income gap, severity of poverty and other political, social and economic factors which were not included in this scatter plot; I'll keep looking for relevant data that could improve this model.

So, dear friends, please make time to go to your precinct and exercise your vote. If you are not actively registered, after this election, you have another 3 years to register/activate your profile at your nearby COMELEC Office.

Data Sources:
http://data.gov.ph/catalogue/dataset/poverty--statistics
http://data.gov.ph/catalogue/dataset/number-of-registered-voters-by-region
http://nap.psa.gov.ph/ru5/updates/poverty/poverty.html

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